Field guide
Estimate AI ROI without fake precision
Use ranges, count review time, and treat avoided work carefully.
Start with loaded time
Multiply hours spent by an honest loaded hourly cost. Include setup, prompting, checking, correction, administration, and training.
Discount the savings
A saved hour matters only if it becomes useful capacity, avoided outside spend, faster revenue work, or less delay. Use conservative, expected, and optimistic cases.
Recheck after purchase
Replace assumptions with four weeks of actual usage. Stop paying when adoption, quality, or usable savings do not support the recurring cost.